The Naval Intelligence Underpinnings of Reagan's Maritime Strategy

Washington's so-called Maritime Strategy, which sought to apply US naval might against Soviet vulnerabilities on its maritime flanks, came to full fruition during the 1980s. The strategy, which witnessed a major buildup of US naval forces and aggressive exercising in seas proximate to the USSR, also explicitly targeted Moscow”s strategic missile submarines with the aim of pressuring the Kremlin during crises or the early phases of global war. Relying on a variety of interviews and newly declassified documents, the authors assert that the Maritime Strategy represents one of the rare instances in history when intelligence helped lead a nation to completely revise its concept of military operations.     

Shielding the ‘Hot Gates’: Submarine Warfare and Japanese Naval Strategy in the Cold War and Beyond (1976–2006)

The build-up of Japan's military apparatus in the 1990s and 2000s has been often regarded by security analysts as indicative of a departure from the country's Cold War strategic posture. Japan appears to be engaged in a process of militarisation that is eroding the foundations of its ‘exclusively defence-oriented’ policy. In the case of the archipelago's naval strategy, such assessments overlook the longstanding significance of a core feature of its defence policy, namely the surveillance of maritime crossroads delivering the wealth of the country. The paper reassesses the evolution of the Japanese strategy since the Cold War by examining the development of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force's submarine force, one of the key components of the defensive shield for these crossroads. The paper argues that with the changes in the security environment of the 1990s, Japan already fielded a mature force with state-of-the-art submarines, and that the rise of a new naval competitor aiming at controlling key strategic points along Japan's sea lanes reconfirmed the critical importance of submarine operations to Japanese national security.     

Operation ‘enduring freedom’: a victory for a conventional force fighting an unconventional war

The track record of the US military in unconventional wars has not been good and there were fears that Operation ‘Enduring Freedom’ might suffer the same fate as previous campaigns. This contribution explores why the Taliban were defeated so easily by the US in 2001. It challenges the view that America's victory was due solely to changes in its modus operandi or that the outcome heralds a change in the fortunes of the US when fighting unconventional war. It also questions the idea that America's victory was a consequence of Taliban incompetence. Instead, it explains the defeat of the Taliban in terms of the prevailing political conditions within Afghanistan, which made them vulnerable to attack. The essay concludes that current political circumstances could, in the long run, permit the resurrection of the Taliban and undermine the US-led coalition's victory.     

The Zimbabwe people’s revolutionary army military operations in Makonde district and the attack on Salisbury’s fuel storage tanks, 1965-1979

ABSTRACT

This article analyses the Zimbabwe People’s Revolutionary Army operations in Mashonaland West province with particular reference to Makonde District during the country’s war of liberation. Despite the growing literature on ZAPU and ZPRA in Zimbabwe’s war of liberation there is little that has been written concerning the operations of ZPRA guerrillas in Mashonaland provinces. Guided by evidence drawn from secondary and primary sources the article further asserts that ZPRA adopted a four pronged strategy in Makonde District. This strategy in part was hinged on the politicization of the population on the one hand and annihilation of the enemy forces, attrition and manoeuvre warfare on the other. Again, the article argues that ZPRA guerrillas attempted to capture Salisbury (Harare) in order to conquer the Rhodesian Security Forces’ centre of gravity. It was hoped that the capture of the capital city would Makoni District was of strategic significance to the conduct of ZPRA operations and arguably hastened Ian Smith’s decision to attend the Lancaster House Conference negotiations that led to the independence of Zimbabwe in 1980.     

Past failures and future problems: the psychology of irregular war

Personal cognitive processes inform how individuals understand their environment. Cultural variation, fundamental attribution error, causal attribution, and durability bias create obstacles to Western understanding of irregular war and have created a significant institutional bias in how the US military perceives its enemies- a perception only somewhat softened after a decade of irregular war. United Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) is in a better position to overcome these problems through persistent engagement. In the event of major conflict, environmentally sensitized military planners will be better able to achieve military and policy objectives.     

卫星双向与单向载波联合的北斗星载钟短稳评估方法

卫星导航系统评估星载钟稳定度通常需要大型地面监测网的观测数据和复杂的钟差确定算法,不能基于单站观测数据实现。论文在分析利用单站观测数据评估星载钟短稳方法的基础上,提出了一种相对容易实现的联合卫星双向载波测距值与GNSS单向载波观测值的星载钟短稳评估方法。该方法通过卫星双向载波测距确定星地几何距离,基于消除星地几何距离的GNSS接收机载波相位观测值估算卫星相对钟差,进而实现其短稳评估。利用北斗系统观测数据进行了有效性验证,并与复杂钟差确定算法以及利用平滑广播星历的方法(SBE法)进行了对比,本文方法与复杂钟差确定算法计算的结果相符,在1000s平滑间隔内与SBE法结果一致,相对误差小于10%,1000s以上好于SBE法。     

载体干扰磁场补偿方法

获得载体航行路径上各点地磁场的精确测量值是地磁匹配导航的前提,而载体上各种干扰磁场的存在会引起磁力仪输出的偏差,影响匹配的精度,因此必须对载体干扰磁场进行补偿。在分析载体干扰磁场特性的基础上,提出利用矢量测量值对地磁场总场值进行补偿的方法。该方法首先根据矢量磁力仪的测量模型得到关于载体磁场参数的非线性方程,然后采用非线性参数估计方法估计出精确的载体干扰磁场系数,最后再利用估计结果对测量值进行补偿。通过仿真对该方法的有效性进行研究,并设计了半实物实验对其实用性进行验证。结果表明采用本文提出的方法补偿后地磁场总场值的测量误差在20nT以内,而且该方法参数估计精度高,应用方便,可以有效地对导航载体干扰磁场进行补偿。     

信息推荐系统中的朋友关系预测算法设计

伴随着互联网规模的不断扩展,信息过载问题越来越突出。信息推荐系统被视为解决信息过载问题的最有效方法。然而目前的方法大多数仅考虑用户独立的反馈,而忽略用户的社会属性对推荐的重要作用,这对信息推荐系统的性能会造成巨大的影响。为此,本文提出了基于朋友关系预测的信息推荐算法,将用户的社会关系预测引入信息推荐过程中,分别基于用户的拓扑信息及历史交互信息建立用户社会关系的存在性判定及关系类型判定,并利用线性回归分析方法和逻辑回归分析方法实现了基本特征的融合。最后,通过在Epinions和Slashdot真实数据集上的实验证明,本方法能够有效提高用户社会关系预测的准确性。     

高超声速飞行器俯冲机动最优制导方法

为解决高超声速飞行器俯冲段精确制导与机动突防问题,研究了机动突防最优制导方法。针对零化视线角速率降低突防性能的问题,在俯冲平面及转弯平面内分别设计了正弦形式的视线角参考运动,同时为进一步实现俯冲精确制导,以落速最大为性能指标利用最优控制对其进行跟踪,引入了伪控制量以简化最优制导问题的求解,最后分析了该方法的稳定性及制导性能。以CAV-H为例进行仿真分析,仿真结果表明该方法能够实现机动飞行,且能够高精度地满足终端落角及落点约束,可为高超声速飞行器俯冲段精确制导及机动突防提供参考。     

水下航行器燃烧室两相流燃烧数值模拟

提出水下航行器燃烧室中两相流燃烧数值模拟方法.采用k-ε双方程湍流模型、涡耗散燃烧模型、离散相液滴模型进行数值模拟,得到单组元推进剂燃烧的速度场、温度场、浓度场的分布.研究了喷嘴压差、环境背压对燃烧的影响,得出了一定范围内,增大喷嘴压差、增大环境背压可以增强燃烧效果的结论.